Posted on by Nathan Riley

Was The Election Musk’s Swan Song?

The Republicans are still strong in Florida, but electing the Democrat for the Wisconsin Supreme Court is an unequivocal victory.

While it is true that Democrats picked up votes in Florida, the Republicans still won in a landslide. That they had less votes than last year proves nothing. Last year, Donald Trump was at the top of the ticket. This year, it was local elected officials who still crushed the Democrats, even if they are not a big attraction like “The Donald.”

One sign that Trump’s diminished popularity cost him votes occurred in Florida. One county that had always been Republican turned blue and voted for the Democrats. The county’s biggest employers are military bases. Politico reports that this county is known as the Cradle of Naval Aviation, in other words federal workers live there and vote. According to Politico, “There are more federal workers in Florida’s 1st District than in any of state’s 27 other congressional districts.” There are four military bases in or near the county of Escambia. Federal workers and their families have every reason to fear the wrath of Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. They stopped being Republicans and gave the Democrats a 2,000-vote margin. The Republicans still won, but throughout the South there are military installations. Musk may be pushing them into the Democratic column.

In Wisconsin, the Republicans turnout was as large as expected, but the Democratic votes surged, and Susan Crawford, the candidate who will keep the Wisconsin court liberal, easily won the election.

Musk, in his wisdom, gave millions to Brad Schimel, the Republican candidate. In a remarkable display of bad taste, Musk mocked Americans by giving two voters separate checks for 1 million dollars each.

Schimel and Musk lost big to the Democrats.

It is hardly a coincidence that within days of the election stories appeared that Musk will leave Washington. It is impossible to know if this is a wish or Trump has actually made up his mind, but one thing is sure, Congressional Republicans want Musk to leave. Stay tuned.

The other good news from this election is a magic bullet. Democrats honed in on “democracy” more than they did fascism, civil liberties, or other words damning the President. “Democracy” is who we are. Even voters with a grade-school education know and want the United States to be a democracy. The Wisconsin Democrats have given us a fighting word, and a cause that unites all members of the party and all voters in the United States. I suspect we will be hearing more about democracy and Trump’s hostility to it in the future.

Posted on by Nathan Riley

Is Trump Winning Elections?

On Wednesday (March 26), Donald Trump, as part of his blizzard of new ideas and executive orders, announced that all foreign cars will have a 25% tariff. Presumably the three American manufacturers should be happy.

Curious, I looked for the American automobile manufacturers’ reactions. After saying they support President Trump, American Automakers, the trade association for American automobile manufacturers, was unenthusiastic. First, they wanted a durable solution, and the dramatic announcement of a major market change didn’t sound durable.

There is no sign that foreign competition is the American manufacturers’ major concern. The companies wanted answers to questions that governments normally provide before, not after, a drastic policy change is announced. General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis (formerly Fiat Chrysler) wanted to “avoid raising prices.” Making it probable that their problem was not foreign competition but that their cars were too expensive for American buyers. If the tariffs raised prices and consumers could not pay them, the number of cars made by these automakers would decline. This worry was accelerated by another Trump tariff on imported aluminum and steel. Making metals more expensive means car prices will increase. Normally, a government carefully weighs these issues before starting a new policy. If Trump had done that it was clear he never told U.S. automobile makers. In fact, the suspicion is that Trump, forever the showman, picked the 25% tariff because he liked the number and wanted to make a public impression. No good can come out of policy changes that are not backed by serious study.

Stock traders also worried. The price of Ford and General Motors stocks fell. The day before the tariffs Ford stock traded for $10.30; by Friday afternoon, two days after Trump’s announcement of the tariff, it was trading at $9.65. General Motors went from $52.59 at the close of Tuesday to $46.39 on Friday afternoon. Stellantis went from $12.40 down to $11.30.

In other words, the 25% tariff imposed on foreign cars did not bring good news. I’m not concerned about the automobile manufacturers’ stock prices, but I am curious whether these businesses really want Trump to be President. It is likely that the rich and powerful are nervously watching the President and wish he wasn’t there.

There is evidence that most people are turned off by the Donald. An election in Pennsylvania for its state senate flipped the district. A Republican local elected official, Josh Parsons, lost to a local Democratic mayor, James Malone. What was red turned blue in a district that overwhelmingly supported Trump.

Even the Trump administration is worried; they told Elise Stefanik from upstate New York she should stay in Congress. She will give up her chance to be the ambassador to the United Nations. Far from New York City, in upstate, the Republicans are the majority, but the administration was worried, and it decided to play it safe and keep her in the Republican majority.

Plainly, Trump is losing support, but the Republican in Pennsylvania lost by the narrowest of margins. The next test of Trump’s popularity occurs on April 1st. In Florida, there are two special elections for Congress caused by the resignation of Republican members of Congress. Matt Gaetz’s successor is being chosen, and Mike Waltz, who resigned to become one of Trump’s national security advisors, will have his successor chosen. In Wisconsin, millions of dollars are being spent in a statewide election, choosing a state supreme court judge. Brad Schimel, a conservative, is running against Susan Crawford, a liberal. The winner will decide if the state’s highest court has a liberal or conservative bent.

Clearly, one reason Trump is losing popularity is the aggressive behavior of Elon Musk. The Democrats are insisting their judge will stand up to Musk while Schimmel will do the rich man’s bidding.

We are just days away from an early read on Trump’s staying power. If the automobile manufacturers and Pennsylvania voters are changing their minds about Trump, this helps explains the decline in his polling numbers. On Tuesday April Fool’s Day we will find out if Trump’s bull-in-a-chinashop style will hurt him in the elections.