Posted on by Nathan Riley

Is Trump Winning Elections?

On Wednesday (March 26), Donald Trump, as part of his blizzard of new ideas and executive orders, announced that all foreign cars will have a 25% tariff. Presumably the three American manufacturers should be happy.

Curious, I looked for the American automobile manufacturers’ reactions. After saying they support President Trump, American Automakers, the trade association for American automobile manufacturers, was unenthusiastic. First, they wanted a durable solution, and the dramatic announcement of a major market change didn’t sound durable.

There is no sign that foreign competition is the American manufacturers’ major concern. The companies wanted answers to questions that governments normally provide before, not after, a drastic policy change is announced. General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis (formerly Fiat Chrysler) wanted to “avoid raising prices.” Making it probable that their problem was not foreign competition but that their cars were too expensive for American buyers. If the tariffs raised prices and consumers could not pay them, the number of cars made by these automakers would decline. This worry was accelerated by another Trump tariff on imported aluminum and steel. Making metals more expensive means car prices will increase. Normally, a government carefully weighs these issues before starting a new policy. If Trump had done that it was clear he never told U.S. automobile makers. In fact, the suspicion is that Trump, forever the showman, picked the 25% tariff because he liked the number and wanted to make a public impression. No good can come out of policy changes that are not backed by serious study.

Stock traders also worried. The price of Ford and General Motors stocks fell. The day before the tariffs Ford stock traded for $10.30; by Friday afternoon, two days after Trump’s announcement of the tariff, it was trading at $9.65. General Motors went from $52.59 at the close of Tuesday to $46.39 on Friday afternoon. Stellantis went from $12.40 down to $11.30.

In other words, the 25% tariff imposed on foreign cars did not bring good news. I’m not concerned about the automobile manufacturers’ stock prices, but I am curious whether these businesses really want Trump to be President. It is likely that the rich and powerful are nervously watching the President and wish he wasn’t there.

There is evidence that most people are turned off by the Donald. An election in Pennsylvania for its state senate flipped the district. A Republican local elected official, Josh Parsons, lost to a local Democratic mayor, James Malone. What was red turned blue in a district that overwhelmingly supported Trump.

Even the Trump administration is worried; they told Elise Stefanik from upstate New York she should stay in Congress. She will give up her chance to be the ambassador to the United Nations. Far from New York City, in upstate, the Republicans are the majority, but the administration was worried, and it decided to play it safe and keep her in the Republican majority.

Plainly, Trump is losing support, but the Republican in Pennsylvania lost by the narrowest of margins. The next test of Trump’s popularity occurs on April 1st. In Florida, there are two special elections for Congress caused by the resignation of Republican members of Congress. Matt Gaetz’s successor is being chosen, and Mike Waltz, who resigned to become one of Trump’s national security advisors, will have his successor chosen. In Wisconsin, millions of dollars are being spent in a statewide election, choosing a state supreme court judge. Brad Schimel, a conservative, is running against Susan Crawford, a liberal. The winner will decide if the state’s highest court has a liberal or conservative bent.

Clearly, one reason Trump is losing popularity is the aggressive behavior of Elon Musk. The Democrats are insisting their judge will stand up to Musk while Schimmel will do the rich man’s bidding.

We are just days away from an early read on Trump’s staying power. If the automobile manufacturers and Pennsylvania voters are changing their minds about Trump, this helps explains the decline in his polling numbers. On Tuesday April Fool’s Day we will find out if Trump’s bull-in-a-chinashop style will hurt him in the elections.

Posted on by Nathan Riley

It Wasn’t The Left, It Was The Party

It may be normal politics to blame the left for failures committed by all the Democrats. But the D’s should spread their net much wider. It was not just the left that made the party appear hapless in 2024.

My roommate, a poet, recently returned from a variety show at a Brooklyn home. A friendly gathering where photographers displayed their work, poets shared their creations, singers jammed, and everyone left with a warm glow—transgendered, gay, lesbian, or whatever choice the guests preferred. Who wouldn’t say “they” if that was the preference of a guest at this gathering. The left will only make modest changes. They are not a majority of the Democratic party, but it would be nearly impossible for this party to become a majority without their support.

In his book “Where have all the Democrats gone” Ruy Teixeira stresses the importance of social gatherings to cement political loyalty. Labor unions offered events and gathering places for years. Union members and their families and friends assumed we are all Democrats. That social cohesion is gone, replaced by the NRA and its social events. The assumption among this working-class group is we are all Republicans.

This is one meaning of the thought that the Democrats have lost the working class. Adding to this gap is the change in union membership. Industrial workers form one group among union membership. Other strong unions represent schoolteachers, government employees, and healthcare workers. Groups who identify as middle-class.

The industrial workers understand that their employers, be they General Motors or U.S. Steel, face stiff competition from foreign companies. They have softened their adversarial posture, recognizing that protecting their industry from overseas competitors requires a different approach. Needless to add, they are thrilled that Donald Trump will erect tariffs to protect their jobs and keep their employers competitive.

Teixeira seeks a revival of Democratic social solidarity with the working class, and he places great faith in a rejuvenated labor movement. His efforts should be encouraged, but he certainly is off base if he relies on blaming the left for causing the D’s problems. The left is here and enjoying its variety shows. It thinks Trump is a buffoon or even dangerous.

My roommate looks stunning in the dresses he frequently wears. His friends and I lavish him with compliments. He will continue to display his creativity. It is improbable that Teixeira’s reproach will have an effect on their lives and preferences.

And it will certainly be true that Kamala Harris would enjoy herself at one of these variety show. The Republicans scored a direct hit with the tag line “Kamala is for ‘they/them.’ President Trump is for you.”

Teixeira worries that the Democratic National Committee will favor the Kamala Harrises, and the NRA will retain its hold on working class. He is absolutely correct that this is a critical question; the tactic he favors, blaming the left for the D’s decline, misses the mark.

It might be the right tactic but it is the wrong analysis.

Roosevelt’s party defeated itself.

From the moment D’s decided to impeach Trump in his first term, they became enamored with anti-Trump hostility. It backfired. Democratic hostility proved to many Americans that Trump will make a difference. According to the Dems, Trump would destroy democracy and the rule of law. In other words, the Dems hostility convinced many that Trump is a genuine change agent. So great was mainstream party leaders’ faith in the electoral appeal of civic virtue that they spent years on venomous attacks.

Attacks that amounted to endorsements for the millions who thought the nation was on the wrong track. Undoubtedly the Dems kept the party united, but they ignored the crucial question: what will the party do to make America better. Trump had an answer. The Dems proudly touted their programs that helped the poor while allowing the nation to be flooded with low-wage workers. Obviously, it did not address the question. As of now, the Democrats still have not projected a program that will generate wage inflation. While Trump devotes most of his time to this popular task.

It was the Dems’ failure to have a popular and unifying program that allowed the trans issue to become a hot-button election issue. Had the Dems something to offer in the way of policy the trans issue would have stayed in the background. The left did not push the issue to the forefront. It was the Republicans. They got away with it because the Dems offered no alternative that engaged the voter.

The Dems are still at Trump’s mercy. They must wait to see if high tariffs raise Americans’ standard of living. Shifting the blame to the left avoids criticizing other wings of the Democratic Party, but it could stifle policies that truly compete with Trump’s.